IMD Predicts Below-Normal Monsoon Rainfall for India in 2026, Heatwave Risk Likely to Intensify in June

New Delhi, May 29, 2026: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday released its updated long-range forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon season, predicting below-normal rainfall across large parts of the country along with an increased likelihood of severe heatwave conditions during June.

According to the latest forecast, the overall monsoon rainfall between June and September is expected to remain at around 90 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a margin of error of ±4 percent. The IMD stated that there is a strong probability of below-normal rainfall during the season, raising concerns over agriculture, water resources, and heat-related stress in several regions.

The weather agency noted that neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the Pacific Ocean are gradually shifting towards El Niño conditions, which are expected to develop during the monsoon season. Meanwhile, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are likely to continue throughout the season.

The forecast indicates that below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of India, although some areas in northwest India, northeast India, eastern peninsular regions, and parts of east-central India may receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

For June 2026 specifically, IMD has projected below-normal rainfall for most parts of the country. However, several regions in northwest India, northeast India, and southern peninsular India are expected to receive comparatively better rainfall activity.

The department also warned of above-normal temperatures across many regions during June. Maximum temperatures are likely to remain above normal in most parts of the country, while minimum temperatures are also expected to stay higher than usual in several areas.

Heatwave conditions are forecast to intensify during June, particularly across Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh. Isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu may also witness above-normal heatwave days. In contrast, Rajasthan and Jharkhand are expected to experience comparatively fewer heatwave days than normal.

IMD cautioned that prolonged heatwave conditions could significantly impact public health, water supply systems, electricity demand, and infrastructure management. The department advised state governments and district administrations to strengthen preparedness measures, including ensuring the availability of drinking water, cooling shelters, healthcare support systems, and emergency response mechanisms.

The weather agency highlighted that vulnerable groups such as elderly citizens, children, outdoor workers, and people with existing medical conditions remain at higher risk during extreme heat events.

IMD further stated that it will continue issuing weekly and extended-range forecasts, along with impact-based warnings and heatwave alerts, to support timely preparedness and response planning.

The next forecast update for rainfall during July 2026 is expected to be released in the last week of June.