Cooler Days but Stormy Skies Ahead: IMD Predicts Unusual Summer Pattern Across India

New Delhi, April 1: India is likely to experience a relatively milder summer this year, with daytime temperatures expected to remain normal or below average across much of the country, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

However, the relief from extreme heat could come with its own challenges. Weather officials have warned of widespread thunderstorm activity and higher-than-usual rainfall during April, which may pose risks to standing crops ready for harvest.

Rainfall and Thunderstorms to Dominate April

The IMD has projected that rainfall in April could reach around 112% of the long-term average, indicating a wetter-than-usual start to the summer season. This increase in precipitation is expected to be driven by multiple weather systems, including western disturbances and easterly waves affecting different regions.

Frequent cloud cover and rain-bearing systems are likely to keep daytime temperatures in check. At the same time, nights may feel warmer than usual due to clouds trapping heat near the surface.

While most parts of the country may avoid extreme heat in April, certain areas—especially eastern and northeastern regions, along with parts of central and peninsular India—could still witness higher-than-normal daytime temperatures.

Additionally, minimum temperatures during the night are expected to remain above average in many regions, except for some parts of Maharashtra and Telangana, where cooler nights may persist.

The forecast of unseasonal rainfall has raised concerns among farmers, as crops nearing harvest stage could be damaged. Agricultural output in some areas has already been affected by weather disturbances seen in late March, and further rainfall may worsen the situation.

Although April may remain relatively moderate, the IMD has indicated that heatwave conditions are expected to increase in May and June. Coastal regions of states like Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Andhra Pradesh may face above-normal heatwave days, along with isolated areas in Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Karnataka.

El Niño Threat to Monsoon

The El Niño phenomenon is expected to play a crucial role in shaping weather patterns later this year. Current conditions in the Pacific Ocean remain neutral, but forecasts suggest a rising likelihood of El Niño developing by mid-year.

There is a significant probability that these conditions could strengthen between August and October, potentially weakening the monsoon season. Historically, El Niño years are associated with reduced rainfall and higher temperatures in India.